Singapore – Forrester has introduced a new AI Disruption Model designed to assess how artificial intelligence is reshaping technology and service markets, with early findings showing that AI’s benefits will not be spread evenly. The model applies a disruption-assessment framework to 17 technology and service categories, covering more than 200 individual markets, to determine whether AI is likely to accelerate, disrupt, reshape, or leave each one largely untouched.
According to the findings, technology products and services that enable, secure, and govern AI are poised for substantial growth. This shift is being driven by organisations moving beyond experimentation and into enterprise-scale deployment of AI applications and autonomous agents.
By contrast, skills-based services look set to face mounting disruption as AI increasingly takes on tasks that have traditionally relied on human expertise. The assessment weighs ten separate factors in reaching its conclusions, including AI substitutability, labour intensity, and support for agentic workloads.
Additional factors taken into account include commercial models, data and trust advantages, AI-focused R&D investment, regulatory friction, asset intensity, and switching costs. Together, these variables determine how exposed — or protected — a given market is likely to be.
Three categories emerge from the research as broadly positioned for growth. Infrastructure providers, spanning cloud platforms, data centres, and storage, are named as one of the clearest beneficiaries as enterprises scale their AI deployments.
Data and AI providers form the second growth category, encompassing AI models, AI platforms, data management, and governance solutions. Cybersecurity and identity providers — including Zero Trust and AI agent security — round out the three markets expected to benefit most directly.
At the other end of the spectrum, labour-intensive knowledge-work industries face the greatest exposure to disruption. Transformation services, technology implementation, software development, creative services, localisation, and training markets are all flagged as vulnerable.
This pressure stems from AI’s growing ability to substitute for activities traditionally performed by people, including coding, content creation, and translation. Meanwhile, a third group of markets sits between these two extremes, set to be reshaped rather than displaced outright.
Business applications, governance and compliance, process automation, customer experience, and marketing technology fall into this middle category. These sectors are expected to evolve substantially as AI transforms workflows and user experiences.
Nevertheless, several factors are likely to help sustain their relevance despite this vulnerability to disruption. Embedded workflows, regulatory requirements, switching costs, and rising demand for data, orchestration, governance, and trust capabilities are all cited as buffers against wholesale displacement.
“Every technology and service market is facing an AI overhaul,” said Craig Le Clair, Vice President and Principal Analyst at Forrester.
“Our research shows that AI’s benefits will not be distributed evenly across technology markets. Only markets in three categories — infrastructure; data and AI; and identity, access, and network security — are broadly positioned for clear growth. Technologies in the other categories will be forced to adapt,” he further explained.
Beyond identifying which markets face which outcomes, the analysis is intended to help technology leaders anticipate impact across their portfolios and plan accordingly. Assessing exposure to acceleration, transformation, or disruption is positioned as a means of preparing organisations for the opportunities and risks that lie ahead.
“The challenge for technology and service providers is not simply understanding where AI is advancing but how it will reshape the economics of their markets,” said Ted Schadler, Vice President and Principal Analyst at Forrester.
“Forrester’s AI Disruption Model gives providers a practical framework to evaluate where AI is likely to accelerate their growth, transform their market dynamics, or replace existing sources of value. Providers can use the model to anticipate change and prioritise investments to thrive in the AI era,” added Schadler.
